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In the eyes of avid sports bettors and online bookmakers, every sports event is seen as a possible wagering opportunity. The problem is game opponents are not often equal in terms of prowess. That's why online sports betting operators use point spreads, which they often refer to as the "great sports betting equalizers."
If you are new to the sports betting community, you might not understand why point spreads exist. We are putting the following information forth to educate you about said point spreads.
In most of our examples, we will be using information related to Super Bowl LIX. The game will be played in the New Orleans Superdome on February 9, 2025. The game will feature a matchup between the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles with the Chiefs favored by 1.5 points.
Sports like European Soccer, baseball, and hockey don't lend themselves to being good targets for point spreads. Why? There is very little need to equalize teams when most game or match outcomes fall within 1 or 2 points or runs. Instead of points or runs (point spreads), bookmakers will use money lines to balance the wagering opportunities.
In sports like football and basketball, most outcomes fall within a range of 1 point to as many as 40 points in college basketball. If a bookmaker were to use a money line on a game where the favorite is far superior to the underdog, the money line would be so big that bettors would shy away from the game because of the lack of risk/reward betting value. Bettors and bookmakers loathe games without action.
Enter the point spread. By posting a point spread on a game, bookmakers are attempting to pull the opponents closer together in terms of betting value to create wagering opportunities.
For a moment, let's suppose that college football powerhouse Ohio State is playing North Texas in the first game of the year. Clearly, Ohio State would have far superior talent and likely win the game by 5-6 touchdowns in most years. The money line might be as high as -6000, meaning an Ohio State bettor would have to bet $6,000 to win $100. Most astute bettors won't do it. However, bettors might well bet the game if Ohio State was posted as a 37-point favorite (-37). Then, the game becomes reasonably bettable and betting action would likely come through the betting windows.
BTW: The point spread will be used to determine the betting outcome. If the final score between Ohio State and North Texas came back 49-10, Ohio State would be the betting winner. Why? You would take Ohio State's 49 pts and deduct the assigned 37 points. The new score would be Ohio State 12 and North Texas 10. Ohio State is the betting winner.
Online bookmakers are in the business of accepting bets. They want millions of dollars to flow through their betting windows so they can generate revenue and profits. Point spreads are put forth to ensure bettors will be active. However, online bookmakers hate risk.
Point spreads have to be reasonably accurate in the minds of sports bettors. What a bookmaker really wants is an equal amount of betting action coming in on both sides of a game. If they can make that happen on a game, the books are balanced, and they are guaranteed a profit on that game. Otherwise, they will end up with risk and a vested interest in the final outcome of the game in question. Here is how the math works:
Example: Remember, point spreads are typically made available at a money line of -110 on both sides of a game. Let's say bettors collectively wager $11,000 to win $10,000 on the Chiefs at -1.5. Fortunately for the bookmaker in question, bettors also collectively wager $11,000 to win $10,000 on the Eagles at +1.5. For the game, the bookmaker collects $22,000 in bets. When the game is over, they will need to pay out $21,000 ($11,000 + $10,000) to the winning side. Good news for them! They made a profit of $1,000 ($22,000 collected - $21,000) paid out) on the game with no risk. That's a bookmaker's dream.
With that said, it's very difficult to get balanced action. If too much in wagers comes in on one side or the other, the "books" end up out of balance, putting the bookmaker at risk. When this happens, they will start adjusting the point spread up or down until they get close to equal action. By doing this, they can hopefully minimize their risk.
Setting point points spreads is not a random act on the part of oddsmakers and bookmakers. A lot of forethought goes into the process because point-spread mistakes could cost bookmakers millions of dollars at the hands of astute sports handicappers. You see, it's a battle between bookmakers and sports bettors, and the side with the best information often wins.
The science of setting point spreads starts with the premise that every game can be equalized if the point spread is reasonably accurate. The process starts with professional oddsmakers who are paid great sums of money by retail and online bookmakers to come up with accurate lines.
To create accurate lines, oddsmakers will use mounds of statistical data. They will shake this data multiple ways until they come up with a number that represents the approximate point differential between the two opponents. However, it doesn't stop there. There is one more piece of the line-making puzzle.
Oddsmakers and bookmakers have to also take into account bettor sentiment. If the buzz among bettors is the Chiefs are a better team, there is a need to account for that by moving the statistical point spread in the right direction. They don't want to get caught flatfooted right out of the gate by a massive wave of wagers coming in early, making it impossible to balance the books in the end.
Example: Let's say the statistical point spread comes back at EVEN on both the Chiefs and Eagles. However, the buzz is big money astute handicappers are looking to swarm bookmakers on the Chiefs if the line comes out anywhere near EVEN. To deter some of that money, oddsmakers and bookmakers might move the line to the Chiefs favored at -1.5 as is the case now.
Predictive sports betting is a difficult thing to do. According to research, only 5%-10% of the best sports handicappers worldwide make a living as professional sports bettors. With that in mind, your sports-betting mindset should be geared toward having fun and maybe making a few dollars along the way.
Whether you are a pro or recreational sports bettor, you should get in the habit of trying to set your own point spreads before you see what oddsmakers and bookmakers are posting. Your best guess should serve as your wagering guide. As you gain experience in setting your own lines ahead of time, you'll likely find your guesstimates are getting closer to what the experts have to say.
Conclusion: Armed with the above information, you now have enough knowledge to reasonably battle with online bookmakers. Our advice is to set your lines and place wagers when you see variances that favor you. Over time, your accuracy should improve with winning frequency sure to follow.
One more thing. Always gamble responsibly. That means never betting more money than you can afford to lose. If you set reasonable betting limits, you'll find that life as a recreational sp[orts bettor can be a lot of fun. If you make a few bucks along the way, enjoy the fruits of your efforts.
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