Your Baseball Betting Guide

It's the end of February, and that means one thing to sports bettors. The start of the MLB regular season is a little more than three weeks away. While baseball ranks third behind the NFL and NBA as betting options among U.S. sports bettors, it still has a large following of almost 44% of registered sports bettors. That means 44% of the U.S. sports betting community regularly bet on MLB games.

MLB Baseball Betting Options

Unlike football and basketball, where point spreads are used to create wagering opportunities, MLB uses money lines. The money lines are used to indicate where favoritism in pointing. A money line with a negative amount indicates each game's favorite in the eyes of professional oddsmakers. Conversely, a plus or positive sign indicates which team is considered the underdog. Here is an example of how this will appear on the betting board of an online sports betting site:

Los Angeles Dodgers -140
vs.
New York Yankees +120

The Dodgers are favored, and the Yankees are the underdog.

If someone bets in $100 increments and wants to bet on the Dodgers, they will need to bet $140 to win $100. If they want to bet on the Yankees, they will need to bet $100 to win $120. Note: The $20 differential (140 - 120 = 20) indicates that the online bookmaker is using a "20 cent line", which represents the online bookmaker's commission if the wagering is equal on both teams. Commission is similar to the vigorish or vig that is charged on point spread betting.

Money lines are also used for over/under betting. If the over/under on the Dodgers vs Yankees game is set at 9 runs, bettors can bet either side. In most cases, the money line will be -110 on both sides. If the action comes in favoring one side or the other, online bookmakers might move the line to -120 on the heavy side and +100 on the other side, again assuming $100 betting increments.

How Run Lines Are Determined

There is nothing arbitrary about how MLB baseball money lines are derived. The methodology behind money line setting involves data collection with a mix of intangible factors that could influence the outcome of the game.

The data collection is done by computers, and the information is evaluated by professional oddsmakers. They are looking for data-related trends that might favor one team over another. They will typically look at data related to:

• Recent pitcher effectiveness for each listed pitcher


• Offensive and defensive stats


• The possible effects of homefield advantage
  

As for the intangible factors that will be taken into account, they will look at things like:

• Possible weather conditions at game time (wind and temperature)


• The injury report for each team


• Team-related news for each team - contract disputes, disciplinary actions, trades, etc.


• Winning and losing streaks

Another thing that oddsmakers will watch is betting trends among astute MLB bettors. If a particular team consistently draws a lot of betting action, oddsmakers will artificially increase that team's money line. Conversely, teams that regularly draw little betting interest might get a small reduction in their money lines.

MLB Betting Options

Like other sports, baseball bettors like having multiple betting options. For MLB betting in America, the options are pretty much the same options that are offered on NFL and NBA betting. Here is a look at the most popular betting options for baseball:

The straight bet - A straight bet is a wager on one team or one side to win the bet. Straight bets can be made on a team or the over/under

The parlay bet - A parlay bet includes two or more selections on the same betting slip. To win the bet, the bettor has to hit each selection, be it 2 selections or 10 selections. One losing selection makes the entire betting slip a losing bet. If a tie should occur on an over/under selection, that selection is marked as a push, and the betting slips number of selection is lowered by one.

Parlays are a favorite among recreational sports bettors who have a limited banroll but want to get more game coverage and a chance to win more money from a smaller bet.

The Run line bet - If bettors want other money line options, they might bet on a run line option. For run lines, oddsmakers will set different money lines while requiring that one team win the game by 2 runs or more, if not 3 runs or more. This betting option often creates higher money lines that can create more winnings for sports bettors.

The Round Robin Bet - The round robin option is used by parlay bettors who want to reduce the number of betting slips they have to create. If a round robin has three teams that will be used to create multiple two-team parlays, the bettor will effectively create three separate parlay bets on the same betting slip. If the number of included teams or the number of teams to be included in the parlay increases, so does the total number of parlays on the betting slip.

The prop bet - The proposition or prop bet was made popular by the Super Bowl. Prop bets are wagers on the occurrence of certain events within the game in question. A prop bet might involve a match up between players, a match up between the teams, or the occurrence of a certain event, like will the two teams score 5.5 runs in the first five innings. Some prop bets have attractive odds, something recreational MLB bettors like.

The future odds bet - A futures odds bet is a bet on something to occur in the future. In baseball, it might be odds on a team winning the World Series or a league divisional championship. A player-related futures odds bet might focus on which player hits the most home runs for the season or which player wins an MVP or Cy Young award. Again, the odds can be very lucrative.

Tips for Betting Baseball

To help you navigate the baseball betting waters, here are six (6) tips you should take to heart:

Tip #1 - Avoid betting big favorites. There is no betting value in laying -200 on any baseball game

Tip #2 - If you are avoiding big-money favorites, it should make sense that big-money underdogs can offer a lot of betting value.

Tip #3 - Track strange betting trends. When a money line moves without a monetary reason, it's a sign that bookmakers are fearful of what professional MLB bettors are doing. They are trying to get ahead of big bets without getting crushed.

Tip #4 - Bet against the public. When the public is getting behind a team, it's an indication that bettors are misinformed or getting emotional about a game. A lot of money can be made going against the public flow.

Tip #5 - Check the weather. The wind blowing out in Colorado's Coors Field can create crazy results. Each park has nuances that can be affected by the weather.

Tip #6 - Be careful and have fun. There is a reason only 5% of the sports-betting population is betting on sports professionally. It's difficult to beat bookmakers day in and day out. Two rules of thumb: One, never bet more money than you can afford to lose. Your bankroll should be nothing more than your discretionary money that's left over after paying bills and putting aside savings. Two, have fun and enjoy yourself.